Fireworks explode over the field before a baseball game between the Baltimore Orioles and the ... [+]
It seemed like a good idea at the time - Baltimore Oriole management decided to bring the left field fence way in prior to the 2022 season. Their theory, I assume, was that their pitching-deficient club would benefit most, and offer the home club somewhat of a cushion, if not a true competitive advantage.
Of course, the analytically-minded among us thought it through a little differently. The homers hit by most of the O’s chief rivals, including the Yanks, Blue Jays and Red Sox, featuring sluggers like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts tend to travel way out of any yard. Meanwhile, the O’s more pedestrian sluggers would turn out to be hurt more by the modest distance added to the left field wall. Predictably, there has been no home field advantage added in Baltimore.
The change in Camden Yards’ dimensions is but a small part of the change in the game’s offensive environment in 2022. I touched on it quite a bit last week in this article that focused on batted ball-based statistics and the baseball itself.
First, let’s reiterate some key numbers included in last week’s article to give you a sense of the year-on-year changes in the early-season run-scoring environment as well as a projection of last year’s small sample over the full 2021 season.
2021: ALL BIP = .324 AVG-.546 SLG
FLY = .343 AVG-.918 SLG
5/12/2021 ALL BIP = .316 AVG-.528 SLG
FLY = .334 AVG-.888 SLG
5/16/2022 ALL BIP = .308 AVG-.496 SLG
FLY = .307 AVG-.776 SLG
A couple key takeaways - something or things have changed that are causing batted balls, especially those hit in the air, to be less productive in 2022 than they were in 2021. Humidors are now being used in all 30 MLB parks, which is one factor. Another key factor is the ball itself, and there is quality ongoing research taking place by the likes of Dr. Meredith Wills and Dr. Alan Nathan on that front.
Another key - you will notice that 2021 full-season production on batted balls rose from mid-May through the rest of the season. This is because of weather. Higher temperatures equal more distance traveled in the air.
You’ll notice, however, that the year-on-year difference between the two mid-May samples is much larger than the jump in offense from 5/2021 to the end of the season. MLB clearly may have overshot the target in any attempt they may have made to rein in offense this season.
Each season, I calculate batted ball-based Park Factors, comparing actual results to the level of production that “should have been” generated based on the exit speed/launch angle of all balls in play at all 30 parks. The early-season park factors typically tend to differ from the end-of-season results, with weather patterns one of the reasons why. Areas with variable climates (and outdoor parks) tend to have low, pitcher-friendly park factors early in the season before increasing in the summer. Areas with consistently warm climates tend to have higher, more hitter-friendly park factors early on, before decreasing as the cooler areas “catch up” in the summer. In addition, there are surprises each season, which might be due to small sample sizes, or could be the start of real changes in offensive context.
Here are some early-season Park Factor highlights:
THE TWO GO-TO HITTERS PARKS: Everyone thinks of Coors Field when they think of extreme hitters’ parks, but do they think of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati? In 2021, Coors was the #1 hitters’ park in the game with a 118.9 overall Park Factor driven largely by a 145.0 Fly Ball Park Factor. Great American ranked 3rd overall (116.9), and 2nd in fly balls (124.0). Well, they’re #1-2 thus far in 2022, with the Reds’ home ranking 1st in both overall (by 147.9 to 127.3) and Fly Ball (by 177.2 to 171.5) Park Factors.
TWO WARM-WEATHER PARKS ACTING HITTER-FRIENDLY EARLY ON: Oracle Park (the home of the Giants) and Marlins Park have typically been known as very pitcher friendly parks, though they have become less extreme in recent years. Thus far in 2022, both have been quite hitter-friendly. Overall, they have posted the 4th (119.7, SF) and 5th (114.9, MIA) highest Park Factors,, They’ve also posted the 3rd (143.5, SF) and 8th (109.2, MIA) highest Fly Ball Park Factors. Expect those ranks to drift downward as the weather warms in the rest of the country. The Giants’ overall (22nd to 24th) and Fly Ball (10th to 15th) Park Factors declined from May to the end of the season in 2021; ditto the Marlins’ (12th to 20th, 21st to 25th).
TWO PERENNIAL PITCHERS’ PARKS: Kauffman Stadium and RingCentral
ONE PITCHERS’ PARK THAT IS BEHAVING ODDLY: In 2021, Busch Stadium posted the lowest overall (83.3) and Fly Ball (69.7) Park Factor in all of baseball. Thus far in 2022, the story has been very different - Busch has been hitter-friendly overall (111.4, 6th) and on fly balls (118.1, 5th). Something weird is going on here, but let’s allow the season to play out before speculating wildly. Perhaps the humidor situation isn’t being handled in a similar manner compared to other parks.
QUANTIFYING THE CAMDEN YARDS SITUATION: In 2021, Camden Yards had the 6th highest overall (rising from 17th in mid-May) and 8th highest Fly Ball Park Factor (up from 26th in mid-May). This time around, it has the 27th highest overall (89.3) and 28th highest Fly Ball (75.6) Park Factor as of mid-May. We can expect an uptick in offense as the weather warms, but it’s clear that Camden Yards is now a pitchers’ park.
100-105 mph FLY BALL HOMER PERCENTAGE, THE BELLWETHER: Thus far in 2022, 29.1% of 100-105 mph fly balls have gone over the fence. This compares to 36.6% as of a comparable stage in the 2021 season. By the end of 2021, the homer rate climbed to 40.2%. Therefore, we can assume that the 2022 rate will climb to about 32% by the end of this season. As a frame of reference, here are the 100-105 mph homer rates for the parks discussed today, as of mid-May 2021, for the full 2021 season, and mid-May 2022:
5/12/2021 2021 FY 5/16/2022
BAL 34.1% 48.3% 21.1%
CIN 46.7% 53.4% 46.4%
COL 38.5% 48.9% 40.7%
KC 14.6% 24.5% 24.3%
MIA 38.5% 32.5% 37.0%
OAK 29.8% 33.7% 22.2%
SF 41.2% 36.9% 37.5%
STL 28.8% 29.6% 37.7%
A couple of closing observations. The 100-105 mph homer rate declined in Miami and San Francisco as the 2021 season went on. Those are two fairly unique climates compared to the norm - you can actually see conditions becoming less hitter-friendly as the season wears on in those areas as the opposite happens in the rest of the country. The St. Louis numbers just don’t make any sense. I’ll be keeping an eye on that outlier as the season progresses.
